Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4794
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
OO 4794 · SBN → ORD
departs 9:05 AM ET · arrives 9:16 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Wed 10/28 13%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 23%
Sat 10/31 30%
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
SBN usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBN
Weather at each end
SBN (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.