OO 4937 · PHX → GJT

departs 3:34 PM MT · arrives 6:10 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at GJT more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GJT?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ GJT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GJT (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4937 · PHX → GJT

Odds over time

How late will it get to GJT?