Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4973
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
OO 4973 · LAX → ELP
departs 8:20 AM PT · arrives 11:34 AM MT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Wed 10/28 9%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 13%
Sun 11/1 17%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
ELP (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.