Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4997
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
OO 4997 · ORD → SBN
departs 11:59 AM CT · arrives 1:52 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31 36%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 26%
Tue 11/3 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at SBN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBN?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
11am departures from ORD are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
SBN usually runs smoothly
↓
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at ORD that day
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SBN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.