Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5041
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
OO 5041 · LYH → IAD
departs 6:03 AM ET · arrives 7:06 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/28 10%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave LYH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.1 mi forecast at LYH that day
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
LYH (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.