OO 5222 · SMF → LAX

departs 3:53 PM PT · arrives 5:33 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ This flight has been late 10% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5222 · SMF → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?