OO 5242 · IAH → MTY

departs 8:27 PM CT · arrives 9:15 PM CST

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at MTY more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MTY?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Arrivals into MTY at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MTY (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5242 · IAH → MTY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MTY?