Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5401
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
OO 5401 · JAX → ORD
departs 12:41 PM ET · arrives 2:32 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Other factors
↓
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at ORD that day
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.