Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5433
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
OO 5433 · SFO → TUS
departs 10:27 AM PT · arrives 12:49 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Wed 10/28 23%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 35%
Sat 10/31 27%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from SFO are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.