Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5502
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
OO 5502 · MRY → SFO
departs 8:40 AM PT · arrives 9:46 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Wed 10/28 31%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 55%
Sat 10/31 44%
Mon 11/2 50%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MRY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 56% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MRY
Weather at each end
MRY (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.