OO 5691 · ATW → ORD

departs 4:44 PM CT · arrives 5:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATW

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ATW (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

ORD (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5691 · ATW → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?