OO 5781 · MSN → ORD

departs 2:57 PM CT · arrives 4:03 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ MSN usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

MSN (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

ORD (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5781 · MSN → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?