OO 5842 · MFE → IAH

departs 5:12 PM CT · arrives 6:39 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ MFE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MFE (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

IAH (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5842 · MFE → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?