Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5858
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
OO 5858 · LAX → SMF
departs 4:30 PM PT · arrives 6:06 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 15%
Sat 10/31 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↓
This flight has been late 10% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.