OO 6030 · PHX → SFO

departs 4:55 PM MT · arrives 7:08 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 6030 · PHX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?