Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6240
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
OO 6240 · PHX → MFR
departs 10:04 AM MT · arrives 12:34 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Wed 10/28 19%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31 23%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at MFR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MFR?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MFR is prone to delays
↑
Visibility down to 0.7 mi forecast at MFR that day
↑
10am departures from PHX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MFR (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.