OO 6437 · PHX → MFR

departs 8:46 PM MT · arrives 11:24 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MFR?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MFR

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MFR (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 6437 · PHX → MFR

Odds over time

How late will it get to MFR?