Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 2135
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
PD 2135 · YTZ → EWR
departs 5:05 PM EDT · arrives 7:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 55%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±8 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
YTZ (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.