Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 2143
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
PD 2143 · YTZ → EWR
departs 8:30 PM EDT · arrives 10:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Thu 10/29
Sun 11/1 53%
Mon 11/2 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±8 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
YTZ (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.