Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 2416
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
PD 2416 · BNA → YTZ
departs 1:17 PM CT · arrives 4:44 PM EDT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Wed 10/28 8%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 11%
Sat 10/31 12%
Sun 11/1 12%
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at YTZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YTZ?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
1pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
YTZ usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
YTZ (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.