Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 2947
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
PD 2947 · YTZ → BOS
departs 9:55 AM EDT · arrives 11:42 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/28 7%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 48%
Sat 10/31 21%
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at YTZ that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
Weather at each end
YTZ (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.