Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 536
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
PD 536 · RSW → YYZ
departs 2:20 PM ET · arrives 5:59 PM EDT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at YYZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to YYZ?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
2pm departures from RSW are often late
↓
YYZ usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
RSW (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
YYZ (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.