Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 627
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
PD 627 · YYZ → AUS
departs 12:55 PM EDT · arrives 3:22 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 16%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ
↓
PD's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
YYZ (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.