Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 5868
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
PT 5868 · PHL → BUF
departs 8:34 AM ET · arrives 9:56 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Wed 10/28 13%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 23%
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↑
PT's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Arrivals into BUF at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.