Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 5870
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
PT 5870 · BUF → PHL
departs 7:46 PM ET · arrives 9:24 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 27%
Sat 10/31 23%
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 16%
Tue 11/3 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±4 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at BUF that day
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
BUF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.