Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 5886
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
PT 5886 · YYZ → PHL
departs 6:22 PM EDT · arrives 8:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 34%
Sun 11/1 33%
Mon 11/2 22%
Tue 11/3 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ
Weather at each end
YYZ (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.