Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

QANTAS · FLIGHT QF 12 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

QF 12 · LAX → SYD

departs 10:47 PM PT · arrives 7:40 AM AEDT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at SYD more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±3 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SYD?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 10pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SYD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.01 in

SYD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QF 12 · LAX → SYD

Odds over time

How late will it get to SYD?