Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA JAZZ · FLIGHT QK 558 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

QK 558 · SFO → YEG

departs 1:05 PM PT · arrives 5:13 PM MDT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at YEG more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YEG?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.6 in of snow forecast at YEG that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ YEG usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YEG (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 558 · SFO → YEG

Odds over time

How late will it get to YEG?