Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA JAZZ · FLIGHT QK 651 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

QK 651 · PDX → YVR

departs 10:14 AM PT · arrives 11:41 AM PDT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at YVR more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YVR?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at YVR

↑ 10am departures from PDX are often late

↓ Arrivals into YVR at that hour are usually not late

↓ YVR usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.02 in

YVR (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 651 · PDX → YVR

Odds over time

How late will it get to YVR?