Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA JAZZ · FLIGHT QK 809 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

QK 809 · SEA → YVR

departs 7:29 PM PT · arrives 8:35 PM PDT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at YVR more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YVR?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ YVR usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

YVR (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 809 · SEA → YVR

Odds over time

How late will it get to YVR?