Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2004
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2004 · SEA → YVR
departs 10:09 AM PT · arrives 11:16 AM PDT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Wed 10/28 16%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at YVR more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YVR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at YVR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YVR?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from SEA are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
YVR usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,733 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
YVR (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,033 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.