Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2009
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2009 · SEA → YVR
departs 8:06 PM PT · arrives 9:13 PM PDT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 17%
Tue 11/3 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at YVR more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YVR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at YVR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YVR?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from SEA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
YVR usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.04 in
YVR (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.