Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2018
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2018 · SAN → LAS
departs 4:54 PM PT · arrives 6:19 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 29%
Sat 10/31 23%
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 28%
Tue 11/3 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±7 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.