Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2023
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
QX 2023 · SFO → PDX
departs 9:25 PM PT · arrives 11:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Sun 11/1 34%
Mon 11/2 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±6 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
QX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PDX (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.