Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2052
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2052 · SEA → MFR
departs 11:19 AM PT · arrives 12:51 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Wed 10/28 25%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 26%
Sat 10/31 26%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at MFR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MFR?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from SEA are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Visibility down to 0.6 mi forecast at MFR that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,733 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
MFR (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.