Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2056
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2056 · SBP → PDX
departs 5:21 PM PT · arrives 7:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 17%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 16%
Tue 11/3 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave SBP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PDX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBP
↓
5pm departures from SBP are usually not late
Weather at each end
SBP (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PDX (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.