Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2105
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
QX 2105 · PDX → OAK
departs 7:53 PM PT · arrives 9:53 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 13%
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 13%
Tue 11/3 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±4 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Arrivals into OAK at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at PDX that day
Weather at each end
PDX (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 0.01 in
OAK (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.