Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2138 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

QX 2138 · SFO → LAX

departs 10:13 PM PT · arrives 11:45 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 AM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±16 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2138 · SFO → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?