Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2150
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
QX 2150 · PAE → LAS
departs 7:21 PM PT · arrives 10:08 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 20%
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±6 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave PAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PAE
Weather at each end
PAE (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.