Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2156
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2156 · BOI → SMF
departs 7:00 AM MT · arrives 7:49 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 5%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 6%
Sat 10/31 7%
Sun 11/1 6%
Mon 11/2 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave BOI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
QX's recent on-time record
↑
SMF is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into SMF at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
BOI (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.