Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2172 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

QX 2172 · SEA → YKM

departs 10:46 PM PT · arrives 11:46 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at YKM more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YKM?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↑ This route's recent record

↓ YKM usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

YKM (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2172 · SEA → YKM

Odds over time

How late will it get to YKM?