Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2178
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2178 · SBA → PDX
departs 7:30 AM PT · arrives 9:55 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Wed 10/28 8%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 15%
Sat 10/31 13%
Sun 11/1 12%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7am departures from SBA are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into PDX at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.05 in
PDX (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.