Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2187 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

QX 2187 · PHX → SAN

departs 7:24 PM MT · arrives 8:50 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 AM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±4 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2187 · PHX → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?