Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2188
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2188 · EUG → SEA
departs 1:41 PM PT · arrives 2:57 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 29%
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave EUG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from EUG are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EUG (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.