Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2196
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2196 · LAS → PAE
departs 4:03 PM PT · arrives 6:41 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31 12%
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at PAE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PAE?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
PAE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PAE (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.