Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2208
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2208 · SMF → SAN
departs 8:12 AM PT · arrives 10:03 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 10/28 18%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 23%
Sat 10/31 25%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
QX's recent on-time record
↑
SMF is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
8am departures from SMF are usually not late
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.