Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2209
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2209 · SEA → MFR
departs 4:35 PM PT · arrives 6:07 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 24%
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MFR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MFR?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at MFR that day
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
MFR (destination)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.