Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2214
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2214 · YYJ → SEA
departs 6:09 AM PDT · arrives 7:06 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Wed 10/28 9%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 11%
Sat 10/31 12%
Sun 11/1 13%
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave YYJ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Other factors
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
YYJ (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,467 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
SEA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,733 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.