Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2301
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2301 · SBP → SAN
departs 6:07 AM PT · arrives 7:28 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Wed 10/28 11%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 15%
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 13%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave SBP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
QX's recent on-time record
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBP
Weather at each end
SBP (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.