Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2304
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2304 · SAN → SBP
departs 10:30 PM PT · arrives 11:48 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 34%
Sat 10/31 28%
Sun 11/1 28%
Tue 11/3 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at SBP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SBP?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
QX's recent on-time record
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SBP (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.